Bullish Insights – Weekly Market Recap

The Bullish Insights Weekly Market Recap includes curated industry news and analysis from the Bullish team for the week of September 19, 2022.

Bullish Exchange

This week’s peak trade volume (24h): September 22, 2022, $1,317,442,760 (70,489 BTC)

Crypto market highlights

• Lido holds the largest number of ETH staked at 4.16mn staked coins, a 30.12% share. Exchanges Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance hold almost 30% collectively.
• Last week, digital asset investment saw a total of $7mn in inflows. Bitcoin and Short Bitcoin saw the majority of inflows of $17.4mn and $2.6mn, respectively. Other assets like Solana, Ripple and Cardano saw minor inflows of $1.4mn, $0.3mn and $0.1mn, respectively. Ethereum saw the majority of outflows at -$15.4mn.
• The Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart is a logarithmic regression model that attempts to use color divisions of the rainbow to indicate when BTC is overbought/oversold. The warmer zones (red, orange, yellow) are meant to indicate overbought zones while the cooler colors (blue, purple, green) attempt to gauge when BTC is oversold. At $19,449 the BTC price falls into the deep blue zone indicating it may be oversold according to the rainbow price chart.
• As of September 22, 2022, alts are largely outperforming Bitcoin which is down by 0.3% and Ethereum down by 4.1%. Bitcoin fell to a 24h low of $18,165 upon the Fed's announcement of a 75bps hike. Major support is at $18,200 and major resistance at $19,000.
• On Wednesday, NFT and DeFi ranked as the top performers at +1.5% and +0.7% respectively. The bottom 2 underperformers were Smart Contract Platforms and Ecosystems, returning -2.1% and -1.4%, respectively
• According to the Chainalysis 2022 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Report, during the period of July 2021 to June 2022, Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) countries received a cumulative total of $932bn worth of crypto.
• The two year projection of Ethereum supply according to ultrasound.money will follow a decreasing trend since its move away from PoW. It notes a projected supply peak at 120.6M ETH on September 22, followed by a gradual diminishing supply over the next two years. The projection is based on 14mn ETH staked with issuance at 1.7K ETH/day and a burn rate of 7.4K ETH/day on the assumption of gas prices at 74 gwei.

Macro market highlights

• As of Monday, September 19th, all sectors were in the red with Miscellaneous and Currencies ranking as the top performers at -5.37% and -5.99% respectively. The top 2 worst performers were Smart Contract Platforms and DeFi, returning -10.39% and -9.96%, respectively.
• US equity markets closed lower in last Friday's session on September 16th, 2022, marking the worst week since June. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.7%, the Dow fell by 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite retreated by 0.9%.
• US equity markets saw a brief relief rally in Monday's trading session with megacap stocks like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. mainly leading the rebound. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, the Dow up by 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.8%.
• US equity markets closed lower in Tuesday's trading session ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. The S&P 500 fell by 1.1%, the Dow down by 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite detracted by 1.0%.
• In terms of trade volume quoted by fiat assets, USD still dominates among the EUR, JOY, KRW and other currencies. Back in 2019, JPY made up a much larger market share but started to shrink in dominance along with the EUR.
• US equity markets closed lower in Wednesday's trading session as the Fed hikes rates by 75bps maintaining an aggressively tight outlook. The S&P 500 fell by 1.7%, the Dow down by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite detracted by 1.8%.
• US equity markets closed on a lower note in Thursday's trading session after the Fed's rate hike and hawkish tone exacerbated recessionary fears through investor sentiment. The S&P 500 fell by 0.8%, the Dow was down by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite detracted by 1.4%. 

Key events this week:

• Euro area CPI, Friday - 9.1% in August
• US consumer sentiment, Friday - University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 59.5 in September
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Wednesday - 75bps hike announced

Other updates

• The Biden White House released its first-ever digital assets framework. Other than the risks associated with the proliferation of digital assets, the framework also outlined ways in which the industry should evolve to better support borderless transactions. (Source: whitehouse.gov)
• Ukrainian supermarket chain VARUS is looking to enable crypto payments for shoppers across 111 stores following their partnership with Binance. (Source: COINTELEGRAPH)
• The UK financial watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority has issued a statement about FTX exchange on their website stating, “This firm is not authorized by us and is targeting people in the UK.” (Source: Financial Times)
• CEO of Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy tweeted a follow-up statement to yesterday’s $160mn hack. He cited that the attack was a Profanity type exploit and that internal “human error” was also attributed to the hack. 
• Jesse Powell, co-founder of Kraken exchange, plans to step down as CEO and to be succeeded by the exchange’s current COO, Dave Ripley. (Source: WSJ) 
• The first phase of Cardano’s Vasil hard fork has successfully been deployed and will now await the final phase for an anticipated September 27, activation. (Source: CoinDesk)

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